Hariri investigation report–no news

Today saw the release of the report by the International Independent Investigation Commission on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minster Hariri. Its objective is to uncover and indict those involved in the terrorist attack on February 14, 2005 that killed Rafiq Hariri and 22 other persons. This report is the tenth of its kind, and has named “the Bellemare Report” after Daniel Bellemare, who began as Commissioner on 1 January 2008.

There are no names listed in the report, and there doesn’t seem to be much progress.

The report also addresses the commission’s investigation into the murder of two Lebanese army officials, Major General Francois Al-Hajj and Major Wissam Eid, on December 12, 2007 and January 25, 2008, respectively.

Meantime, in Lebanon, the political situation remains at an impasse, despite numerous attempts to elect a successor to President Emile Lahoud, whose term expired in November 2007.

No news, no progress, political stalemate, and murder with impunity. This is the Middle East, after all.

AIDS in Asia report

Today, the UNAIDS team gave a report on AIDS in Asia, the first of such exclusively for the region. There are more than 4 million cases of AIDs reported, and a predicted 8 million by the year 2020. Still, these are speculative figures, as many countries in the region deny any problems stemming from HIV, an outcome and signifier of the heavy social stigma AIDS  and sex carries in the region.

Infections come from one of three ways: commercial sex, drug use, and homosexual male intercourse. Commercial sex workers must use more condoms to prevent not only getting the disease but spreading it to their customers, said the panel.

Also, the UN team admonished that regional governments must cooperate more closely in the prevention and treatment efforts. So far, only 2 countries in the region have cooperated in the UN’s effort.

Most alarming of these obstacles is that police in Indonesia have threatened to arrest UN outreach officials who are on the ground handing out condoms. This refusal to cooperate among the police and government is unlikely change soon. The UNAIDS commission has condoms and resources, but they cannot shift cultural norms.

UN report on Post-Election violence in Kenya

Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki

 The UN Human Right commissioner issued yesterday a report on the violence in Kenya following the December 27 election that left over 1200 Kenyans dead. After three-week fact finding trip, the UN experts determined that the violence and unrest was fueled by discrimination, poverty, and disenfranchisement.

The report outlines 3 distinctions of violence–spontaneous, organized, and retaliatory. The first was general mayhem after the highly disputed election results were publicized. The second form of violence consisted of organized attacks in the Rift Valley, which appear to have targeted the Kikuyu tribe. Finally, in the last phase, the Kikuyus, the dominant, minority ethnicit, retaliatd by attacking non-Kikuyu groups, such as Luo.

 Of course, the police were to blame for not handling the situation appropriately, and, according to the report, “impunity is deeply entrenched in Kenya and is not confined to the police alone.”

The report praised the Feb. 28 power-sharing agreement and subsequent peace talks involving Kofi Annan. Critics suspect the agreement will be hampered with obstacles.

Bear, Yen, and Kosovo, again

The biggest international news took place here in NY on Sunday. Bear Sterns was sold to JP Morgan Chase at a bargain basement price of $236 million (which includes the Madison avenue building worth $1 billion). At the market’s closing last Friday, Bear’s shares dropped more than 40% to around $30. JP Morgan’s sale price was $2 per share. The total price is 1 percent of what Bear was worth 3 weeks ago. So huge shareholders lost big time–the WSJ reported that “Joseph Lewis alone reportedly enduring paper losses of $800 million on his 9.6% stake.” Imagine all those filthy wealthy investors having to sell that third house, how lovely. In the same analysis, the WSJ blames Bear Sterns’ execs for the blunder: “The hard capitalist truth is that Bear’s most senior managers have mainly themselves to blame.”

In response to the incessantly shaky US markets, the dollar continued to slump. On the opening of Asian markets, the greenback was trading at 95 yen. Corporate Japan is worried, since the dollar’s fall will not only be detrimental to Japan exporters, but it will also create shock throughout Asia.

Russia was right: the Serbs-dominated region of Northern Kosovo, Mitrovica, will not acquiesce to rule from Pristina without a fight. In an ill-planned move, the UNMIK forces on Monday raided a courthouse that had been occupied by Serb rebel factions. One Ukranian UN policeman died.

Chad and Sudan peace agreement

The presidents of Chad and Sudan signed an greement late Thursday in Dakar, with the UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon and the president of Senegal overseeing the process. Don’t expect much of this accord–it is the 6th in 5 years, and it did nothing to prevent Sudanese rebels from marching across porous borders to Chad’s capital last month, in an attempt to overthrow the president Deby’s government.

The meeting in Senegal was postponed from Wednesday because Sudan president Bashir had a headache. When he finally did show up, Mr. Deby accused the Sudanese government of aiding and funding the rebel forces causing havoc on the border.

Meantime, at the UN, hands are tied. The Security Council promised 26,000 UNAMID peacekeepers by the end of 2007. So far, only 9,000 are there, and they have been, as yet, ineffective. They need helicopters, but any attempts to bring in more have been blocked by the government in Khartoum. Sudan is the size of France. And no matter how many troops there are, if they can’t be transported, they can’t be stop villages from being eradicated.

Everyone calls on China to do more to stop the genocide going on in Sudan, since they are the only ones with influence in the region. When are we going to stop blaming this on Sudan and China, or worse, relying on autocratic governments to bring changes we know they won’t?

JPY/$ !!

This graph is courtesy of my sister. The FT reported today that the dollar has slumped lower than 100 yen. This is huge. I can’t believe that only last August my dollars were converted at about 120 yen. If you’re traveling from Japan to the US you’re in luck. If you’re a Japanese exporter you haven’t seen a rate this bad in 12 years.

Serbian Foreign Minister Jeremic at the Security Council

Serbian minister Vuk Jeremic delivered a statement to the Security Council today, stressing the need to “find a compromise solution that can be confirmed by the Security Council.” Serbia insists that the EU “rule of law” mission currently being dispatched to Kosovo is illegal under UN resolution 1244. Th EU forces “operate well outside the parameters set forth by Resolution 1244″ and “there is no clear legal mandate” for their activity in Kosovo.

Meanwhile, UK ambassador John Sawers said that “the EU has always been a part of UNMIK” and in its current capacity it will now be “a larger part of the international community on the ground.”

The Russian delegation, currently serving as SC president, issued a draft presidential statement. Russian ambassador Churkin said that Russia doesn’t accept the EU Mission in Kosovo, and it “rejects their assertions that they’re working to replacing UNMIK.” He went on to say that “no one should usurp the responsibilities of UNMIK and the UN in Kosovo.” It is highly unlikely that the statement the Russian drafted will be passed.

Mr. Jeremic has now been to the UN a few times since Kosovo declared independence on February 17.

Article on the Cuba trip (published at flakmag.com)

HAVANA — Whichever Castro may be running the show at any given time, life in Cuba isn’t that bad…

…That is, if you don’t mind travel restrictions, a measly state salary, only five government-run newspapers and zero Internet access and, at this grocery store, not much choice in the juice department.

Then again, choice isn’t communism’s forte. Still, how bad, or good, is life in Cuba? When I was there this February, people seemed happy — but it could just be the great weather, or the sunny Caribbean disposition. The buildings are crumbling, but the streets are no dirtier than those in Manhattan. Homelessness is non-existent. The literacy rate hovers around 97 percent, and more than half of the population holds a university degree.

Even with the facts, it’s impossible to evaluate life in Cuba unless you go there. Once in Havana, it doesn’t get much easier.

My second day in Havana, I helped push a car uphill. I was standing outside the press office, waiting to receive my journalist visa. It was a hot Saturday afternoon, and the thoroughfare in Vedado — a boisterous entertainment district — was a cacophony of car horns, street conversations and a band playing guajira in an open-air cafe. On the street in front of me, a hulking 1950s Plymouth crept by, eventually revealing a tiny woman pushing on the back bumper. Her husband, in the driver’s seat, was frantically trying to jumpstart the car. I joined in the pushing effort. After some failed attempts, the man got out and popped the hood, exposing an engine that looked like it had been excavated from the bottom of the Caribbean.

Understandably, transportation is a major problem in Cuba. The road is a nursing home for Chevys from a bygone era; the unkempt rusty tanks spew plumes of black smoke. Coinciding with the economic embargo, post-1960s American vehicles are nonexistent. Meantime, the origins of the other vehicles on the road reflects those countries which have picked up the slack in support to the island. Miniature Russian Ladas are everywhere, and all tourist agencies use Korean-made Hyundais. The newest vehicles on the road are Chinese buses, a sign of recent Asian economic ties.

Another issue rankling Cubans is housing. With no private property or real estate market, most Cubans spend their entire lives in just one home. The only way to move is to swap residences — a complex, clandestine and illegal process. Not much construction has been completed since Castro took power. Thus, Havana’s architectural landscape reads like a history book. With colorful colonial era facades, vast plazas and baroque churches, old Havana resembles a small town in southern Spain. In the newer areas, the art deco theatres, such as the Karl Marx Theatre in Miramar, are Russian-made. The Russian embassy — phallic, robotic and windowless — has my vote as the strangest structure in Havana. One of the newer looking edifices on the iconic avenue Malecon is the American Interest Section. In 2006, the Americans erected an electronic sign to display news and anti-Castro propaganda. Fidel did as any autocratic despot would: he ordered the construction of hundreds of flagpoles directly in front of the American building to obscure visibility.

As that example shows, in the propaganda war, the US is fighting an uphill battle. Upon exiting Jose Marti airport in Havana, one is confronted by a vast billboard with Bush’s face and a pun that translates as “asshole assassin.” Another billboard on the Malecon uses portraits to compare Bush and Luis Posada Carriles — a CIA-funded Cuban exile who was responsible for a string of deadly bombs in Havana 1976 — to Hitler.

Economically, pseudo-socialism is the Cuban model. Some call it entrepreneurial socialism, because only about 10 percent of Cubans can survive on the state salary alone; the vast majority earns extra income in creative ways. They steal from work and sell on the immense black market, or work for tips in the lucrative tourism industry. Some rent an extra room in their house or get remittances from family abroad. Essentially, Cuba has a dual economy — one government-controlled and the other non-Cuban. An example of this two-tiered system is at Coppelia, a famous two-story ice cream parlor that resembles an open-air evangelical church. On the weekends, Habaneros line the blocks around Coppelia, some waiting for hours for the cold stuff. For Cubans, there is only one flavor, and the price is in Cuban pesos. For tourists, however, there is a separate “tourist only” kiosk, and no line. Here, flavors abound — vanilla, strawberry swirl and mango. And tourists must pay a much higher price with the convertible peso, a different currency. A policeman standing at the entrance initially denied me entry to the Cuban-only side until I convinced him that I was just taking pictures and would not actually buy ice cream.

The economy is only one point of obfuscation in trying to understand Cuba. Things don’t get any simpler on the political side. On Sunday, Feb. 24, the National Assembly met. It’s a powerless, monolithic cabinet with 614 members, the youngest of whom is 18 years old. I spoke to several of the deputies that afternoon, and I had trouble finding a unique opinion on the outlook of the Cuban government. In that meeting, they rubberstamped the election of the Council of State, whose president, Raul Castro, will also continue as leader of the military. Fidel officially resigned a few weeks ago, and he was not in attendance that day. But, from my seat in the balcony for press and invited guests, Fidel’s presence was apparent. At the close of the meeting, the hall erupted in a collective “Viva Fidel!”

So, in short, the elections brought no change. Any hope that Cuba was on course for substantial reform was all but squashed. Raul is 76, and his number two man, “Machadito,” is 77. The average age of the Council of State is 70. These old comrades from Fidel’s revolution are unlikely to relinquish power to the younger generation until they physically cannot stand up — which is exactly what happened to Fidel, and he has been confined to expression with just a pen and paper.

The youth were most let down by the election results. Out of a total population of 11 million in Cuba, 2.2 million were born after 1992. Sometimes called the “lost generation,” these Cubans never experienced the glory of the revolution, or affirmation for communism under Soviet financial support. Advocates for change in Cuba are looking to the youth to spark an opposition movement. Even after the election cemented the reign of the old communist guard, some of the younger generation remains optimistic. At a bus station outside of Havana, a man in his mid-20s told me, “now that Fidel is fading, something can happen.”

Yet efforts to organize dissent have been unsuccessful thus far. Such organization is nearly impossible in Cuba, where public gatherings are closely watched by the government. But there may be other obstacles to this galvanizing dissent — not all youngsters I talked to want swift reform. At a book fair in East Havana, a group of high school boys, one of whom purchased Cien Horas Con Fidel — a best-selling lengthy tome of interviews with Fidel — said although they realize the shortcomings of the government, they’re ultimately proud of their country and leader. A law student in her mid-20s confided, in impeccable English, that growing up with the virtues of socialism would make it impossible for her to live anywhere other than Cuba. “My home is in Cuba, and no matter how undesirable rationing may be, I will raise my kids in this system.” So it seems that while many of the younger generation will acknowledge the shortcomings of the government, they’re hesitant to challenge the basic structure. Indeed, during a break at the elections that Sunday, a 24-year-old parliamentary member told me, “I represent the youth, and the change we want is in line with revolution.” In essence, they want improvements, not changes.

A few weeks ago, Ricardo Alarcon, the president of the National Assembly, invited students to voice their grievances with the government. According to the students, they want to use the Internet, stay in hotels and travel outside of Cuba. The youth “want to be able to travel. I personally want to go to Paris,” said Laura, a 17-year-old graphic design student. She’s now studying in a becaria, or boarding school in the countryside. During the week, she shares yard work and a small, cramped dorm with dozens of other girls. She’s learning French at the school, but doubts she’ll ever put what she’s learnt to practice.

Free travel is one of the fundamental rights denied to average Cubans. Having travelled the world extensively, I think it’s unconscionable not to be able to leave your country. Moreover, even visiting family or studying abroad is restricted. Unless someone has a legitimate need — professional musicians and athletes get visas without delay — leaving is next to impossible. Shouldn’t the government allow Cuban medical students to compete with the best in the world, or realize their dream of perfecting their French in Paris? Invariably, this question brought the response that it’s not actually Cuba’s fault. Rather, it’s due to other countries’ harsh immigration policies. In these responses and many others, the line between myth and fact is nebulous, and I wasn’t convinced the answers were honest opinions.

The youth also grumble about the Internet. These days in Cuba, information spreads most quickly via la radio bomba, or by word of mouth. Printed news is controlled by the state. There is no free press. Luckily, the youth are getting plugged into the Internet. On the weekends, Laura, the graphic design student, uses the Internet at a nearby hotel. It costs about $7 an hour, and is not censored. It is via the Internet that she can see pictures of Paris. She chats with other friends in Cuba, as well as friends she has made through social networking sites. Thus, between the travel ban and media censorship, the Internet is the only liberalizing mechanism available to Cubans. “There is a lot of frustration among the youth,” Laura says while chatting online. The Internet has the potential to open the country to worldwide press. Just as vitally, it may be the catalyst to any serious organization among voices of dissent. Still, until it becomes widely available, this potential won’t be fully realized.

At the political level, the US and Cuba have been vehement enemies for nearly 50 years. From reports in Washington, we imagine Havana must be swarming with poverty. People there must be miserable, right? Do they know we have iPods and blogs and flickr and sushi? I talked to young and old, politician and civilian, students, cab drivers and bartenders. Men and women, black and white. I wouldn’t say anyone is miserable. In fact, most people I came across in Havana are complacent. Still, there latent hope for something new, some reform that will bring higher quality of life that, at present, they can only imagine.

My last night in Havana, I took a stroll through the cobblestoned, narrow streets Habana Vieja, the oldest part of the city. It’s within walking distance from the port where, at one time, sailors and slaves and sugar mixed in a rum-fueled cocktail that created mambo and mulatto. The mood was reminiscent to that other famous port town, Cadiz, where boats bound for Cuba left the old world for the new, via the Congo. Notes from bands playing son songs floated through the air. On a street corner, a cadre of effervescent young boys wailed bolero folk songs into the night. This scene hasn’t changed in 50 years. I don’t expect it to anytime soon.

(published on Flak Magazine:  http://www.flakmag.com/features/cuba.html)

Roksonaki–sounds from Kazakhstan

I had the chance to catch Roksonaki from Kazakhstan last night at the Asia Society in Manhattan. For two hours, the 3-piece band played lutes, dombras, reed flutes, and dozens of quirky hand percussion instruments. In a revival of a near-extinct tradition, they played a few songs using throat singing, which was worth the trip alone.

The band formed in Almaty, Kazakhstan in 1990. They’re touring in the US for for the celebration of the Central Asian holiday Nauryz, a pre-Islamic folk celebration of the spring equinox.

Traditional Kazakh music was banned under Soviet rule. Since the empire’s dissolution, and the creation of Kazahstan in 1992, there has been a resurgence of ancient Kazakh instrumentation and nomadic music. Even young people in the country are fans of the centuries-old music.
Kazakhstan is the size of Western Europe, but it is a geographical black hole to most Westerners.The country became popular recently after Ali G’s popular movie. My musical knowledge of Eurasia stretches only as far as Turkey – whose recent music history continues to amaze me — so it was good to hear what pop music from an oft-overlooked region of the world sounds like.

Christopher Hill on North Korth

Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill came to Columbia University on Thursday night to give a speech titled, “U.S. Foreign Policy from the Danube to the Yalu.” The essence of his hour-long talk was North Korea, and the 6-party talks which have not, as yet, gained any ground in convincing the country to eradicate all nuclear facilities. The ambassador admitted several times he was worried about the lack of progress.

The multi-lateral talks with North Korean are at a stand still. The 6-party group–Japan, US, the two Koreas, and Russia–was supposed to receive a declaration from North Korea, outlining a “complete and correct” list of all nuclear facilities, programs, and plans. The country missed the deadline in December 2007, and again in February of this year. To make matters worse, Mr. Hill’s North Korean counterpart didn’t show up for a planned meeting last weekend in Beijing.

A few years ago, president Bush referred to the regime in North Korea as a member of the “axis of evil.” Hardliners in the administration had the upper hand on the NK policy, and negotiations were out of the question. Now, not only has the US negotiated with the rogue state, but they are willing to pardon them for missing deadlines and standing up ambassadors. The US’s drastic shift in policy on North Korea over the past few years culminated in NY Philharmonic’s recent performance in Pyongyang. After that event, Mr. Hill commented on the stalling of the 6-party talks: “Right now it is unfinished work. I think artists can sell unfinished work, but diplomats cannot.”

Why the reluctance to force progress, and the surprising shift in policy? One word: Iraq. After the The Bush administration failed so egregiously in the Middle East, it wants to win a diplomatic battle in Asia.

The new conciliatory policy is extremely worrying for Japan. In October 2006 North Korea tested a missile over the Sea of Japan, an action that proved they have capability but belied the lack of technology and funding in their budding program.

The US has a responsibility to reassure Japan that it will be protected. The US/Japan economic partnership is the strongest in the world, and the US-penned Japanese constitution denies country the right to military action.

For the sake of the balance of power in the region, and to reassure Japan, the US needs a new policy on North Korea. The 6-party talks are stalled. Japan knows it is a waste of time to talk to North Korea–the popular nickname for Mr. Hill is “Christopher kim-jong Hill.”

Mr. Hill has never met a microphone he doesn’t like. Including the Q&A, and the impromptu press conference afterward, he spoke for nearly 2 hours straight. Yet, anyone following the news on North Korea would have come away empty handed. He said nothing new. He’s an ambassador. And hence his job is sound optimistic and speak without saying much.