Suicide by insecticide in Japan

A farmer in Kumamoto in Southwestern Japan killed himself by ingesting chloropicrin and made 54 hospital workers seriously ill when he vomited.

It is the latest in a spate of chemical-suicides, says CNN. Japan reported over 32,000 suicides in 2006.

Israel and Syria talk

ast week in Israel, Bush compared attempting to negotiate with “terrorists and radicals” tantamount to a kind of appeasement the world saw when Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939. He shouldn’t have spoken so soon. Less than a week later, Syria, and Israel are talking for the first time in 8 years.

Bush’s remark was merely political, a tool with which to provoke Obama to justify his position on open dialog. And history has shown that, indeed, for all the Bush administration’s irascible rhetoric about not talking to enemy regimes, there are exceptions. We’re now in the midst of 6 party talks with sworn enemy North Korea, a country which tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006. We’re also sending them food and oil. There are similar aid shipments going to Cuba on a regular basis, but dont’ tell the exile community in Florida.

This is why Israel’s initiative with Syria should not shouldn’t surprise anyone. It’s simply impossible to have a blanket policy of non-engagement this nonpolar world.

Israel has demonstrated that it feels threatened by Syria’s sponsorship of Hezbollah, and it knows the only way to ameliorate the situation is to open the diplomatic channels. This is reasonable diplomacy. Syria wants the Golan Heights returned, an area captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Israel wishes to pry Syria of Iranian influence and close the Hamas office in Damascus. To turn Syria into a pro-Western friend in a precarious region would be a huge, albeit difficult, victory.

Turn again to North Korea. In his opening foreign policy speeches, Bush designated the country among the axis of evil and refused to talk without conditions. Then, after North Korea fired a nuclear missile toward Japan in October 2006, the White House peculiarly changed its mind and began participating in the 6 party talks. And, after nearly 2 years of lengthy, glacial negotiations, earlier this month an agreement was reached. A shipment of tens of thousands documents arrived in Washington from North Korea-the complete and correct declaration of the country’s nuclear policy. We have a success, through talking.

Pundits claim that the it is a waste of time to try to negotiate with malignant regimes. I agree, most times. I think we need to look no further to the Myanmar to prove that. But, given the right conditions, talks can be beneficial. North Korea has proven this much is so. Now, it’s time for Syria and Israel to do the same.

My opinion piece on Myanamr

See my opinion piece in Flak magazine here. This was published yesterday but written last week. As you’ll see in it, I propose that Ban Ki-Moon visit Myanmar, and on Sunday his office confirmed that he will leave today for the region. This an egregious late yet positive move.

But one thing still bothers me. The Secretary General will leave the country on Saturday for “bilateral meetings with Thai officials.” But anyone who has been following this knows that he will exit Myanmar because the referendum vote will take place on Saturday. The vote was delayed in the worst hit areas until the 24th–other regions of the country voted last Saturday, despite calls from that the junta should instead “focus on the humanitarian effort.” He should make a similar statement before the proposed vote this Saturday.

Why the way forward in Sudan doesn’t exist

In today’s WSJ editorial page, the esteemed UN Goodwill ambassadors and Darfur activist Mia Farrow and Nancy Soderberg make say that the U.S should use its Security Council presidency next month to send more peace keepers to Darfur.

Since China pushed the Khartoum government into accepting a UN/AU hybrid force last year, there has been little progress. Only 9,000 of the proposed 26,000 troops are on the ground. That’s because the Sudan government is restricting the access to only African troops, since they’re underpaid and underfunded. There have been similar hang ups on allocating helicopters to ease transport in Darfur, a region the size of France. At least 24 are needed, and some a countries were willing to donate a few.

The two authors propose that the US call together a pledging conference. In conjunction with the the Security Council’s trip to the region in early June, the conference would bring together countries willing to contribute troops, in hope that a new plan could be agreed upon. But the U.S. has already done something similar, via special envoy Rich Williamson. His efforts to force about 3,000 Ethiopian and Egyptian troops were unsuccessful.

But all these efforts to somehow pry the government in Khartoum to change a position it has held for years will come to naught. And the UN peacekeeping force will not be able to stop the genocide without a mandate. This is because no one can “keep peace” without peace to keep.

With a rebel attack on Khartoum over the weekend, the rebels in the south have shown they are not interested in pursuing a ceasefire. They should know that these attacks do nothing but prolong the Darfurian genocide. If there is going to be any peace in Sudan, it’s going to have to be initiated by the rebels. The disparate factions first need to stop attacks on the government outposts, unify under one group, and plead to the government for a ceasefire. Until then, the international community can do little short of invasion to stop the killing there.

UN special meeting on Myanmar

Apropos to the UK prime minister Brown’s urging last night for the UN’s Ban Ki-Moon to convene an “emergency summit,” the secretary general called a high level meeting this afternoon. All major donors and several ASEAN members were in attendance.

All members expressed the need to focus on the humanitarian effort, and not politicize the issue. Chinese ambassador Wang said that the Burmese government is suspicious of any Security Council action. If members “talk less about Security Council action and concentrate on the humanitarian side” the Burmese government will continue to open up, he said on his way out of the meeting.

But, in the first inclination that the UN members are willing to hold the ruling junta responsible, both the US and UK ambassadors said, if the regime continues to restrict access the issue will get politicized. Ambassador Khalilzad of the US said if there are more deaths “they will be held accountable.”

In a continuation of the slow progress achieved so far, Ban Ki-Moon called for a meeting with ASEAN members on Monday the 19th, and a high level donor meeting in region at the end of the month. Yes, that is nearly two more weeks and that we’ll have to wait for major effort from the UN.

However, in an effort to assuage the British Prime Minister, the secretary general said he will consider sending OCHA director and undersecretary general John Holmes to Burma. This is the kind of action we should expect. And sadly, it should have happened in the immediate days after the crisis.

Don’t invade Myanmar, but pursue other options

Last week a colleague came to the office in the morning with a huge frown on her face. “I had the worst train ride–a woman next to me kept hitting her child, violently…he was visibly in pain and crying. It was outrageous, but I was paralyzed to do anything or say anything to prevent the child from being beaten. Neither could everyone else on train. Now, I’m just as disappointed with myself, and with everyone else on the train on the train, as I was with the abusive mother.”

Substitute the mother with the military junta in Myanmar, and my colleague and the rest of the riders with the international community, and you have an analogy of what is happening in Myanmar.

It has been nearly 2 weeks since Cyclone Nargis ravished Myanmar. Over 60,000 have died, and many more are expected to perish in the second stage, from disease and other preventable maladies. The Burmese military junta has proven that they can neglect their own with impunity. After all, this disaster is incredibly convenient for them—the hardest hit areas were also the mostly populated by opposition groups and ethnic minorities.

The response from the UN has been absurdly slow and ineffective. On the third day of the catastrophe, a Monday, an emergency response team assemble by the Secretary General in Bangkok could not get visas, because, well, ahem, the Burmese embassy was closed for national holiday. Now, after 14 days, the UN has managed to finagle the military junta to allow 34 experts into the country. For comparison, the US military had 15,000 personnel help with the tsunami cleanup effort four years ago.

The UN and the U.S. have been using “quiet diplomacy” to try to assuage the repressive regime in Yangon. We should know by now that closed regimes are not skilled diplomats. Ban Ki-Moon has tried several times to get in touch with Than Shwe, the Burmese ruler, but he seems to be, in the words of UN undersecretary John Holmes “allergic to phone.” In lieu of phone or email contact, Mr. Ban has sent two letters to the Burmese leader, both of which have failed to elicit a response.

But don’t be too quick to blame the UN. It’s hamstrung by two obstacles. One is administrative. The “responsibility to protect” principle—which empowers the Security Council to protect civilians if their government proves to not be up to the task—doesn’t cover circumstances of natural disaster. And even if any action were proposed by the Security Council, China would certainly veto.

China, Thailand, India and other regional powers are the only ones who are in close contact with the Burmese regime. But those countries have significant business interests in Myanmar—Thailand has its hands in the logging industry and China used the country for access to the Indian Ocean. With agreements in place, these countries are unlikely to do anything to irritate the military junta. In a sign of how much the junta values trade to line its coffers, last Friday, less than a week after the cyclone hit, the LA Times reported that Burmese vessels were exporting rice to Bangladesh.

Meantime, since the UN can’t do anything and the countries in regions are unwilling to cross the generals, the only other option is some sort of forced intervention. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested sending in humanitarian workers with military assistance. After all, U.S. and French naval vessels are floating in the waters off of Myanmar waiting for a green light. The U.S. has 11,000 marines in the vicinity. But there would be no clean and easy way for the U.S. Military to get involved, and intervention would be tantamount to an invasion.

In today’s New York Times editorial page, Robert Kaplan suggests that such an action is “militarily doable,” but the “very act of our invasion could land us with the responsibility for fixing Burma afterward.” Alluding to Iraq, he suggests that the invasion would ultimately lead to a collapse of the regime, and the U.S. would be stuck with picking up the pieces. And we’re hardly ready for that with ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Instead of an invasion, the U.S., UK, and France should just threaten such an action. The U.S. has hinted at dropping aid from helicopters to the worst hit areas in the Delta region. There has been no response to this from the government so far.

Also, Ban Ki-Moon and other heads of state should consider a trip to Yangon, since they have been unable to get in contact with the ruling government by phone. Admiral Keating of the U.S. Pacific command made a surprising visit to Yangon on Monday. In response, two more C130 U.S. airplanes were allowed to fly in the next day.

The international community has spent the last two weeks watching the death toll rise in Myanmar. The clock is ticking, and it’s time to pursue stronger action. Are we willing to walk away from the end of this with a profound sense of disappointment for not acting when we should have, because we were too afraid?

“Numbering” in Saudi Arabia

From a series of articles the NY Times is doing on the lives of the young across the Muslim world:

“And certainly, practices like “numbering”–where a group of young men in a car chase another car they believe to contain young women, and try to give the women their phone number via Bluetooth, or by holding a written number up to the window–have become a very visible part of Saudi urban life.”

This is what happens girls and boys are separated in a high tech, over-funded  place. In another instance of fusing technology, wealth, and lack of sex, some young Saudis “have started buying special belts which use Bluetooth technology to discreetly bream the the wearer’s cellphone number and email address at passing members of the opposite sex.”

Is this strange, or…awesome? Can you imagine how easy it’d be to pick up that girl on the bus, the one you traded glances with, who you would otherwise never see again? Maybe these Saudi youth are up to something after all.

Myanmar, 10 days later

Today is the 10th day since Cyclone Nargis touched down in Myanmar. By my count, so far, 2 people from the UN’s emergency response team have been given visas, and one from the World Food Program. Meantime, the death toll continues to rise unabatedly. Some are saying more than 1 million could die.

To blame the government of Myanmar is useless at this point. They don’t care about people dying–to them, this is population control, especially since the hardest hit areas were the poorest, filled with opposition supporters.

The military junta is denying outside help because it wants to be responsible for any relief effort, both to convince themselves and everyone else that they are in control, and to meld support the referendum that was voted on last Saturday. Also, the infamously reclusive state doesn’t want to open up to internationals, for fear that they could incite or support an democracy movement.

What’s shocking is that the international community, especially the UN, is being pushed around by a rogue state. But we’re used to the UN not being able to act even in the most drastic circumstances, in Rwanda, and present day, in Darfur.

The UN can’t force aid on the country, as suggested by Bernard Kouchner. But it can press other buttons, like kicking the country out of the UN. Why not threaten that? Meantime, there is no foreseeable solution.

Cyclone and Myanmar–UN response, Day 2

Today is Tuesday, nearly 4 days since the cyclone struck Myanmar. So far over 20,000 are reported dead, and many more in desperate need of water and food. People are dying in Myanmar. So what is the UN doing?

The Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon sent a letter to Than Shwe, the military leader of the country, urging the military junta to allow the international community to assist the relief effort. And late yesterday afternoon, the Chef de Cabinet of the UN met with the Myanmar’s Ambassador. The ambassador requested immediate humanitarian help for the country. Finally, the UN’s chief in the country has been in direct contact with the foreign minister of Myanmar.

But all of that direct contact has come to naught. So far, nearly 4 days after the cyclone touched down, no UN staff or aid has crossed into the country. Granted, the WFP and UNHCR are dispensing what aid they have from stocks inside Myanmar. But that is just enough food and emergency relief equipment for normal situations. This is not a normal situation.

Earlier today, Mr. Rashid Khalikov, the Director of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, gave the press an update of the UN’s efforts so far. He said that there are 5 UN personnel in Bangkok awaiting visas to cross into the country. Yes, you read that right, there are only 5 people assigned to save a country of over 50 million people. They just applied for visas today, because, as Mr. Khalikov explained, Monday was a holiday in Bangkok and the embassy was closed. So a three day weekend is what’s keeping UN from sending to help in this disaster.

The government in Yangon has a prickly relationship with the UN, and has been known to kick UN personnel out of the country in the past.

Laura Bush, who has made consistently Myanmar an important issue for some reason, pledged $200,000 in emergency relief. Or, about how much money we spend in 5 minutes in Iraq.

It’s crises like this one in which the UN can make a name for itself. Transcend the politics on the ground and save lives. But, the UN is an increasingly polarized body. I can understand stagnation in the Security Council. But humanitarian assistance should be the UN’s specialty. Sadly, the events over the past two days confirmed that they cannot be as effective as they need to be in responding to a humanitarian crisis.

appeasing and being rebuffed by IRAN

Last Friday in London, Condoleezza Rice was in London with senior officials from Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany to discuss Iran. In an unexpected move, the group of left with an offer on the table for Iran: diplomatic ties and loosening of sanctions in return for Iran abandoning uranium-enrichment program.

Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei rebuffed the offer, suggesting that the other should not be too optimistic for any concession. Iran has doggedly argued that the thousands of new centrifuges are being used to enrich uranium for purely peaceful purposes.

This comes on the heels of a Bush administration policy that has been defined by refusal to engage with Iran, one of the “axis of evil” countries Bush defined in the beginning of his presidency. The other two, Syria and North Korea, have also been in the news lately. The Bush administration recently declassified information on an Israeli air force attack on a remote structure in Syria that took place last year.